Switch Predicted to Dominate Next-Gen Console Market

Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to be the best-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028. This makes Nintendo the projected console market leader, surpassing Microsoft and Sony.

The report attributes this success to the Switch 2's anticipated early 2025 release and the relatively limited competition at that time. High demand may even lead to production challenges for Nintendo.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028, leaving a significant window for Switch 2 dominance. The report suggests only one of these post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve widespread success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.

This forecast aligns with the Switch's remarkable success. Circana (formerly NPD) reported that the Switch's lifetime US sales have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2, becoming the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% decrease in Switch sales in the past year.

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry as a whole. After a period of decline, the industry is poised for significant growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 projected to be a particularly strong year. The Switch 2's release, coupled with the anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, is expected to fuel this resurgence. The global gaming audience is also projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, driven by the increasing popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This expanding market is also boosting hardware sales across PCs and consoles.